The latest Global Carbon Budget Report was published in May 2026. These are some of the key messages, but for a more complete view follow the link and read the Executive Summary.
Global Carbon Budget 2025 | Friedlingstein et al, Earth System Science Data 13 May 2026
Global fossil CO2 emissions (including cement) are expected to increase in 2025 by 1.0 %, reaching an expected 10.4 GtC/yr. Emissions from coal, oil and gas are expected to be above 2024 levels (by 1.0 %, 1.1 % and 1.3 % respectively).
A GtC is a gigatonne (one billion metric tonnes) of carbon. To get from GtC to GtCO2 - gigatonnes of CO2 - multiply by 44/12; so 10.4 GtC is 38.1 GtCO2.
Fossil emissions are projected to grow in 2025 in the US and be nearly flat in the EU, reversing long-term decreases, and to grow in China and India, but more slowly compared to recent trends.
Fossil CO2 emissions decreased in 35 economies with growing GDP during the decade to 2024.
Global net CO2 emissions from land use averaged 1.4 ± 0.7 GtC/yr for 2015–2024. Emissions from deforestation, the main driver of global gross emissions, remain high at around 1.9 GtC /yr for 2015–2024, highlighting the strong potential of halting deforestation for emissions reductions. Since the late-1990s, emissions from land use show a statistically significant decrease at a rate of around 0.2 GtC per decade, with a larger drop within the most recent decade. Data for 2025 suggest emissions decreased to around 1.1 GtC (4.1 GtCO2/yr).
Total anthropogenic emissions (fossil and land use, including the carbonation sink) were 11.6 GtC /yr in 2024, with a slightly lower preliminary estimate of 11.5 GtC /yr for 2025. Total anthropogenic emissions have grown more slowly over the last decade (0.3 %/yr over the 2015–2024 period) than the previous decade (1.9 % /yr over 2005–2014).
The remaining carbon budget from the beginning of 2026 for a 50 % change of limiting warming to 1.5 °C is nearly exhausted (50 GtC equivalent to around 4 years at the 2025 emissions levels), consistent with the warming of the planet attributed to human activities, which reached 1.36 °C in 2024. Each additional cumulative emission of about 180 GtCO2 will lead to approximately 0.1 °C of warming. The remaining carbon budgets to limit warming to 1.7 and 2 °C above the 1850–1900 level have been reduced to 145 GtC (12 years) and 290 GtC (5 years) respectively.
The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is set to reach 425.6 ppm in 2025, 53% above pre-industrial levels. The preliminary 2025 growth rate estimate is 4.4 GtC (2.1 ppm).
The ocean sink, the global net uptake of CO2 by the ocean, has taken up 29 % of the total emissions in the past decade. It has been stagnant since 2016.
The land sink, the global net uptake of CO2 by the land excluding land use, has taken up 21 % of the total emissions in the past decade. It has been relatively stagnant since 2000, largely in response to climate variability and climate change offsetting the CO2 induced growth.
The effects of climate change and climate variability act to reduce the land and ocean CO2 sinks, by 25 % and 7.1 % respectively, for 2015–2024. The land sink is negatively affected by warming with decreased tropical plant productivity and enhanced ecosystem respiration globally. The ocean sink is negatively affected by altered oceanic circulation and surface warming, which decreases CO2 solubility.
So far in 2025, global fire CO2 emissions have been approximately 20 % lower than the 2015–2024 average.
So that's where we are. Atmospheric CO2 is now at 427.3 ppm. Guardian graphic.
Post. Category climate, tag water.
Click on any link to see related content. For an index of categories and tags on this website click here.